Many leaders reviewing today’s labor data are breathing a little easier. After years of disruption and historic quit rates, employee turnover is finally trending down. On the surface, it feels like real progress.
But data only becomes useful when it is understood in context.
The most recent trend shows a decline in voluntary employee turnover, but it does not mark a return to pre-pandemic norms. A look at the full historical picture tells a more accurate and a more important story.
What the Quit Rate Measures (and Why It Matters)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures voluntary employee turnover through the Quit Rate, which reflects employees who leave by choice rather than through layoffs or organizational restructuring.
The quit rate is a national confidence indicator:
- When employees feel confident in their opportunities, they quit.
- When uncertainty rises, they stay.
Historical Quit Rate Trends: 2000 – 2025
Since reporting began in 2000, several patterns are clear:
- 2001–2010: Low and steady quit rates with the recession producing the lowest levels
- 2011–2019: Year-over-year increases as the job market strengthened
- 2020: A sharp decline due to early-pandemic uncertainty
- 2021–2022: Record-setting quit rates
- 2023–2025: Declines from the peak, but still aligned with the tight labor market of 2016 and 2017
The takeaway: Turnover has decreased from historic highs, but it has not returned to what many leaders remember as “normal.”
Learn how to Calculate your Employee Turnover Rate.
The Seasonal Pattern of Employee Turnover
One pattern remains consistent across every year of available data:
- Low turnover in January and February
- Rising turnover in spring
- A peak in mid to late summer
- A decline in fall and winter
This rhythm has persisted through recessions, expansions, the pandemic, and the Great Resignation.
Which means the current early-year decline is not a sign of improvement. It is timing.
Leaders may misread this natural dip as evidence their retention strategies are working even if nothing has changed internally.
The Rising Cost of Employee Turnover
Even as fewer employees quit, the cost of each resignation continues to increase. Using Work Institute’s conservative estimate that turnover costs around 33% of an employee’s base pay, the national cost of turnover has risen more than 70% since 2015.
This increase is driven by:
- Higher wages
- Longer time-to-proficiency
- More complex onboarding
- A tight labor supply
- Competition for critical skills
A lower quit rate does not automatically translate into lower organizational cost.
What Leaders Should Do Now to Reduce Turnover
The decline in voluntary turnover may give the impression that employees are more engaged or more satisfied, but the data suggests something different.
Employees may be staying because the external market is shifting and not because the internal experience has improved.
If organizations assume this decline signals the end of their retention challenge, they may find themselves unprepared when the market opens up again.
Now is the time to reinforce efforts to strengthen the employee experience. Organizations that want more stable retention should:
- Listen to and act on employee feedback
- Strengthen leadership capability
- Offer clear career paths and growth opportunities
- Improve the early employee experience
- Identify risk signals before they become exits
Organizations that treat this moment as a break in the action will see history repeat itself. Those that invest now will be in a stronger position when competition intensifies.
Final Thought
Turnover may be lower today than it was at the peak of the Great Resignation, but the workforce has not returned to its old patterns. Costs continue to rise, quit rates remain higher than early years in the dataset, and seasonality still predicts when employees leave.
Retention is not a reaction. It is a responsibility.
Work Institute helps organizations understand why employees leave and what you can do to retain them. If you want deeper insight into your turnover patterns, we’re here to help.